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Will AutoZone (AZO) Sustain Its Beat Streak in Q4 Earnings?

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AutoZone (AZO - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Sep 19, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $44.53 per share and $5.59 billion, respectively.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AZO’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share has moved 16 cents south in the past seven days. The bottom-line projection, however, indicates year-over-year growth of 9.9%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a 4.6% rise from the prior-year level.

The automotive parts retailer posted better-than-anticipated results in the last reported quarter. Earnings of $34.12 per share improved 17.5% from the prior-year figure and topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.84. Over the trailing four quarters, the company surpassed earnings estimates on all occasions, the average being 10.22%. This is depicted in the graph below:

AutoZone, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

AutoZone, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

AutoZone, Inc. price-eps-surprise | AutoZone, Inc. Quote

What Does Our Model Say?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for AutoZone this time around as well. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: AutoZone has an Earnings ESP of +3.57%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged $1.59 higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: AutoZone currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Things to Note

Sales growth in both retail DIY (‘Do-It-Yourself) and commercial DIFM (‘Do-It-For-Me) businesses is likely to have boosted the firm’s revenues during the to-be-reported quarter. AutoZone’s omni-channel efforts to improve customer shopping experiences are reaping profits. The company’s e-commerce efforts that are driving traffic to its website are likely to have positively impacted performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. We expect comps to grow 3.2% during the quarter under discussion, higher than 1.9% in the fiscal third quarter of 2023. Our projection for domestic store sales is pegged at $4.9 billion, implying an uptick of around 5% year over year.

Store expansion initiatives, fast delivery and high-quality products are also anticipated to have positively impacted the company’s top line in the fiscal fourth quarter. We expect the total store count at the end of the to-be-reported quarter to be 7,135, calling for a jump from the year-ago period’s 6,943.

However, doubling down on expansion with the opening of new distribution centers, mega hubs and stores might have strained near-term financials and operating margins. Further, AutoZone’s technology investments to improve the electronic catalog might have limited cash inflows in the to-be-reported quarter.

Peer Releases

O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2023 results on Jul 26. Its adjusted earnings per share of $10.22 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.05. The bottom line increased from $8.78 in the prior-year quarter. The automotive parts retailer registered quarterly revenues of $4,069 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,990 million. The top line increased 11% year over year. The total store count was 6,071 as of Jun 30, 2023.

ORLY had cash and cash equivalents of $57.9 million at the end of the reported quarter, down from $108.6 million recorded as of 2022-end. Its long-term debt was $4,873.7 million, higher than $4,371.6 million as of Dec 31, 2022.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 23. Its adjusted earnings of $1.43 per share declined 62% from the year-ago quarter's figure. The reported figure also fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72 per share. Advance Auto generated net revenues of $2,686 million, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,671 million and increased 0.8% year over year.

Advance Auto had cash and cash equivalents of $277.1 million as of Jul 15, 2023, compared with $269.3 million on Dec 31, 2023. Total long-term debt was $1,785.1 million as of Jul 15, 2023, up from $1,188.3 million on Dec 31, 2022.

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